Saturday, January 19, 2008

south carolina exit polls

It's a tight race in South Carolina, with McCain and Huckabee competing for first place. A couple of observations...

First, we know that the Republican base turned out in large numbers -- more so that eight years ago when George W. Bush won the state. As for independents, they make up about 19% this year. Compare that to 2000 when independents made up 30% of the electorate.

We're seeing a large turnout of evangelicals -- 58%. Huckabee courted this group and today they gave him 41%; however, McCain received 27% and Romney 11%. A sizeable advantage for Huckabee, but not the same that we saw in Iowa.

As in every contest this year, voters in South Carolina want someone who shares their values. Forty-two percent said this; 23% think that experience matters. Among the voters that said experience matters, McCain gets a large majority: 67% to Romney's 24%. Huckabee gets a meager 2%.

Lastly, voters in South Carolina say that John McCain is the best person to beat the Democratic nominee: McCain 41%, Huckabee 22%, Romney 20%.

Source:http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com

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